EURUSD struggles to recover after GFCC decision Lees Meer, Tiff Macklem's first press conference and Monetary Policy Report as Bank of Canada Governor went without a hitch today, mainly because nothing was really announced. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Europe Limited or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Lees Meer, Thursday’s Bank of England meeting will mark a shift in priorities for the Monetary Policy Committee. Lees Meer, Despite global growth woes still prominent on investors’ minds, the prospects of lower interest rates and increased liquidity in the Eurozone prompted a surge into the rand and South African bonds this morning Lees Meer, A full ECB rate cut is now priced in by futures markets for 2019 after Draghi showed his concerns about the persistently low inflation in the Eurozone and the lingering risks to growth, especially stemming from weak manufacturing and export conditions. The drag was mainly driven by contractions in the French and Italian economies along with economic stagnation in Germany. Mon conjoint fuit la confrontation 13 avr. Employment was a rate bright spot in June’s PMIs so any weakness here would be a particularly unwelcome surprise. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.   Today’s sight deposit data suggests this may be the threshold for the SNB as CHF4.4bn was added to the SNB’s balance sheet in the week ending May 15th. Authors:  Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. Martijn Weller legt uit wat de oorzaken hiervan zijn en blikt kort vooruit op de komende week. The Mexican capital account is largely reliant on its premium payments given the increasing risks of credit downgrade by foreign rating agencies and Lees Meer, Statistic’s Canada may have just won this month’s forecasting prize as July’s GDP comes in at 3.0% MoM, smack bang on their provisional estimate released along with the Q2 GDP report last month. Lees Meer, The euro had a strong finish to last week, with two of its main rivals the dollar and sterling fell due to idiosyncratic factors. Lees Meer, Despite rallying against the greenback, the yen has underperformed against other G10 currencies in the aftermath of the pandemic to date, with the trade-weighted exchange rate having weakened since the May surge. Lees Meer, The Mexican peso faces considerable downside pressures from both domestic and external risks. This is equivalent to a 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP. The core of the Treasury response will likely be some kind of targeted or partial wage subsidy scheme to replace the blanket furlough programme that ends in October. Lees Meer, The dollar has remained on the offensive today, as central bankers focus on managing increasing speculation in financial markets that major central banks such as the Fed and BoE may be forced into negative rates. Such a move will allow Donald Trump to bypass Congress and secure more funds for the border wall than was previously allocated by the budget bill, setting the tones for further tensions in US politics. The rebound in the soft data saw China’s manufacturing sector expand for the first time this year, soothing fears over the global growth slowdown. Moderna’s results send USD lower, but will all of this change with today’s Covid data from the US? Despite clear guidance from both Andrew Bailey and the August Monetary Policy Report that the measure is not imminent, OIS pricing indicates markets are increasingly anticipating the BoE may cut rates to negative as early as this year. The Fed’s current “whatever it takes” approach to asset purchases gives it great flexibility – this may be changed to a regular monthly pace that is announced ahead of time as the US recovery continues. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Europe Limited or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Lees Meer, Christine Lagarde and the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will face up to the emerging coronavirus shock to the European economy and sky-high expectations for monetary stimulus.   This afternoon the SARB followed in the TCMB's footsteps, cutting rates by 50bps to a record low of 3.75%, as continuing lockdown measures erode inflation and expand the output gap. Lees Meer, Sterling looks set for yet another night of politically driven volatility as the UK essentially chooses between a massive Tory led fiscal expansion, and an even more massive Labour led fiscal expansion. Lees Meer, The euro has taken a major knock this morning, after the release of utterly dismal Flash Purchasing Managers Index data for Germany in September. Lees Meer, Worsening risk appetite was the main theme, as market attention turned to the prospect of renewed tensions between the US and China. Lees Meer, Brexit lijkt in een stroomversnelling te zijn gekomen na concessies van de Europese Unie aan de vooravond van cruciale stemmingen deze week in het Britse parlement. The Riksbank has also announced that they are prepared to take further measures and supply liquidity even between scheduled meetings, while purchases of bonds by non-financial institutions may also be considered. Lees Meer, The dollar has been teasing market participants this week by trading differently each day. The country is extremely sensitive to further downward revisions by major agencies despite AMLO's austerity stance, as structural growth could be impacted for years to come. The 50.1% annualised GDP contraction in Q2 dwarfed the 40% contraction anticipated in the SARB’s previous forecasts, suggesting the growth projections are likely to be revised down. The euro took it personally and declined for the third day in a row against USD yesterday and continues to be under pressure again this morning. De deal is echter nog verre van rond, met nog twee vervaarlijk uitziende beren op de weg; een mogelijke motie van wantrouwen tegen May en of de deal wel langs de Britse tweede kamer (House of Commons) komt. PBOC liquidity injection supports risk appetite, Dollar takes no prisoners as risk climate continues to shift, Markets lick wounds as PBOC measures deemed ample, for now, FX pricing of coronavirus has been limited but all may change, Dollar strengthens with Trump acquittal and PCE in scope, Monetary Policy Committee majority not persuaded by “risk management considerations”, Divisive BoE meeting could pressure sterling further, Fed meeting sparks little interest as coronavirus still prevalent, Loonie stands out in commodity-linked FX space as risk-off move sweeps markets, FOMC in focus: on hold until proven otherwise, Monetary Policy Committee likely to hold rates in knife-edge decision, UK businesses breathe a sigh of relief after election, Bank of England bets rest on today’s PMI releases, Loonie lower post BoC but a rate cut isn’t a given, EUR lower after Lagarde dodges big questions, Dollar firms on contagion risk and proposed tax cuts pre-election, Labour market data complicates UK macro picture even further, Markets return post-US holiday to a busy political schedule, USDCAD outlook remains intact as trade deal remains on pause, A week of bad data and dovish MPC commentary builds expectations of rate cut, Euro looking steadier as ECB likely to strike upbeat message this week, Data calendar set to drive FX volatility on Davos week, South African Reserve Bank unexpectedly cuts rates, Chinese economy stabilises as markets continue to digest “phase one”, CBRT cut rates but at a slower pace than 2019, CPI undershoots emboldening dovish pricing, US set to maintain tariffs until November election passes, US removes currency manipulator designation from China, Sterling trades heavy as GDP data confirms BoE concerns, Sterling slumps as markets digest heightened rate cut probability, US nonfarm payrolls to capture market’s attention today, EU-UK post-Brexit red lines are drawn ahead of final vote on the divorce deal, Iran retaliation on US forces has a short-lived market reaction, Markets keep a cautious eye on geopolitical tensions, Geopolitical rumblings affect risk appetite, Risk off move after US drone strike raises Middle East tensions, Trump tweets a New Year’s gift to markets, Dollar closes 2020 on back foot, amid hints of white smoke from Beijing, Markets trade without guidance as festive period begins, Sterling continues to trade heavy as BoE show concern, Dollar softens as Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives, Trump set to be impeached but dollar remains firm, Sterling glimpses the sunlit uplands of a post-Brexit economy, Phase one – done for both Brexit and the trade war, Game day for sterling with G10 central banks also in focus, Nerves steady across markets as US-China news awaited, Markets trade tentatively ahead of Decembers tariffs, Dollar weakens as markets keep faith in trade deal, Trade relief on US-China talks sends USD lower, Trade and geopolitics begin to revive FX volatility, Markets set to begin moving again on busy week of data and geopolitics, No Chinese retaliation to Hong Kong Legislation…yet, Thanksgiving quiet disrupted by Hong Kong legislation in US, Dollar trades mixed despite Trump’s upbeat tone on a deal, Markets not fazed by fresh US-China headlines, Deal or no-deal switches from Brexit to US-China, Markets trade on low volatility awaiting US-China headlines, Fed minutes confirm a pause on rates but concern on corporate debt, Sterling unfazed by leaders debate this morning, US dollar falls on Trump-Powell meeting a negative trade headlines, USDCAD may test $1.33 if core CPI undershoots, This week’s meeting minutes from the RBA and Fed come after a dramatic week for AUDUSD, US Dollar blunted by trade optimism and poor manufacturing data. As of now, the BoJ has not rang the alarm bells about the evolution of the currency, but it might soon be forced to face questions about the need to soften the yen’s appreciation –similar to what some ECB official members recently did. The poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny with a military grade nerve agent heightened the possibility that western countries could slap new sanctions on Russia, delivering a big blow to the ruble. Lees Meer, This week’s dollar weakness was a tale of two halves. Lees Meer, The US data front for today features the release of the preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs and may provide some fresh impetus for dollar price dynamics on the last trading day of the week. Lees Meer, The Bank of Mexico stepped in yesterday with a unanimous inter-meeting decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 6%. Lees Meer, US markets were shut yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr day. Lees Meer, Australian jobs data delivered a gut punch to the currency. Despite the fact that the government has not enacted any additional fiscal measures to rescue the economy amid the coronavirus crisis, the economic fallout could represent an increase of the primary deficit as percentage of GDP of some 2.5pp to 4.4%. Chart 2: For this reason, the premium on sterling downside protection over the next 3-months edges further towards referendum levels No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Lees Meer, We have maintained a constructive view on the loonie for some time now. As long as risks remain disproportionately centered on the US economy rather than the global economy, and oil markets continue to gradually recover, NOK is likely to hold steady. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin spoke on the phone yesterday for about one hour, discussing potential further fiscal stimulus. This would undoubtedly be the best case for sterling now as it awaits the signal to push back towards fair value. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=L-lQRzILgRo Lees Meer, Het eind van het jaar gevoel sluipt er langzaam in met de feestdagen voor de deur, maar het jaar is nog verre van over! Risk sentiment has caused extreme demand for dollar liquidity and hasn't been soothed by Banxico's latest measures, which may be regarded as underwhelming. Mon ex fuit les discussions. Lees Meer, The UK economy is enjoying a fairly solid economic upswing at the moment, but increasing anticipation of negative rates in financial markets, and now increasing discussion of the issue at the MPC, highlight the extent to which everyone knows the economy is not out of the woods just yet. Higher gold and commodity prices were also likely related to the pattern of gains overnight. Many market participants are expecting Powell to use the opportunity to outline a major change in the Fed’s approach to inflation targeting. US news flow offered plenty of engaging side plots yesterday. The data likely helped the greenback as risk sentiment continues to chop and change in markets as survey-based measures of output and employment change showed the strong state of the US economy. Compared to the darkening macro and political outlook for the UK, fixed income and options market pricing is looking rather tame, or even complacent. With OPEC+ weighing up further production cuts conditional on Russia’s agreement, we believe oil prices have likely bottomed out for the time being. Lees Meer, The dollar continues to trade on the back foot today with February’s Nonfarm Payroll release in scope. The central bank pledged to continue its asset purchase programme as it navigates its way through the pandemic, which is exactly what markets expected. The move could be hardly attributed to safe-heaven pressures as per the relaxed, or even positive, performance of most financial conditions indicators. Lees Meer, This morning, sterling hit a fresh 4-week high after news broke that PM May will brief cabinet on an extension in Article 50 before addressing Parliament to outline the “progress” that has been made at mid-day. Output in the manufacturing sectors remains the weak point in the eurozone’s growth outlook. Lees Meer, The Bank of Canada today left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, while reiterating that rates will be held at the effective lower bound until 2023 and the QE programme will continue to be in effect at C$4bn a week until the recovery is well underway. Lees Meer, A strong positive surprise in China’s April manufacturing PMI yesterday morning set the tone for the session as investors appetite for risk rose once again. - 30/03. The Bank of England’s net-hawkish meeting on Thursday proved insufficient in clawing back prior losses and the pound ultimately ended the week a percentage point lower against its American counterpart. Lees Meer, Ruimte voor hoger Brits pond volgens Martijn Weller van Monex Europe. Lees Meer, Since the beginning of June, sterling has taken a leg higher on the back of improved global risk sentiment amid easing lockdown measures and economic resumption. While France’s cases recently dipped, the tighter measures are expected due to the latest wave. The data coming from Canada is likely to be more interesting, with consumer sentiment stalling as of late. This is a plausible commitment considering the subdued current and expected inflation profile, but it is also a bold bet in terms of financial stability and asset markets. This is likely to concern the ECB who are already battling record low inflation expectations. Lees Meer, The US and China trade negotiations continue to proceed with some goodwill towards the Trump administration showing from the Chinese camp. Lees Meer, The week ahead offers a moderately eventful calendar that will be capped off by non-farm payrolls. Price action in G10 and EM FX has been indecisive, with the US dollar mounting a modest rally against several currencies that has come under threat of reversing on Friday. Lees Meer, The greenback fell by over a percentage point against all G10 currencies yesterday as liquidity conditions improved in markets and the dollar's synthetically produced strength due to credit and liquidity issues unwound. Author: Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe. Lees Meer, Head of Market Analysis Ranko Berich discusses the consequences of a contested election with Bloomberg as the votes are counted and the outcome remains unclear. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. The latest Copom minutes highlights the reluctance of the committee to ease further via interest rate cuts, as the group weigh on the effects of overstepping the 2% effective lower bound. The Riksbank will offer up to Kr500bn against collateral for onward lending at a 0% rate (variable and fixed to the repo rate which is also predicted to stay at 0% for the foreseeable future) for up to 2-years. The PM will retain her position until June 10th in order to host the visit from US President Donald Trump on June 3rd. Lees Meer, The greenback saw another swathe of strength yesterday as a new methodology in spotting virus infections in China caused not only 14,480 more cases to be diagnosed, but also a risk-off rally as fears of a more entrenched outbreak rippled through markets. USDZAR - 1 month window This is not only due to the WE scandal but also reported disagreements with the Prime Minister over the shape of the stimulus package. Lees Meer, The Mexican peso outperformed in the first month of 2020, being one of the only four currencies in the EM space with positive spot returns against the dollar. Lees Meer, The dollar weakened in a broad sense yesterday, with the DXY index reaching fresh one month lows this morning. Lees Meer, While other Eastern European currencies like the Czech krona and the Hungarian forint are also performing well amid general EM currency gains this week, the zloty got an additional boost after a Polish central banker signalled that having near-zero rates after 2020 would be harmful to the Polish economy. Tidal waves of white guilt battered my psyche, compounded by the splitting emotional earthquake I felt as an Indigenous person what had happened to the cousins of my ancestors. Repo rates were cut by 10 basis points on Monday, and a net 550 billion yuan was pumped into repo markets over the first two days of the week. Lees Meer, Price action was fairly muted in G10 FX again yesterday despite threats by President Trump to substantially raise tariffs on China. While the krona hit decade lows in the aftermath of the outbreak, its recovery benefitted from the fact that the economy experienced a relatively benign first wave. Today’s release saw a welcome increase in import inflation for the economy which currently prints inflation readings well below the ECB’s target. Lees Meer, This morning’s session is defined by central bank announcements, with the Swiss National Bank kicking off proceedings. Last week, the Fed engaged in a swap line arrangement with Banxico for provision of $60 billion of USD liquidity, which Banxico is now injecting in local markets via repo operations. This will be of upmost importance for the Bank of Canada, which signaled this week that monetary policy will start to become more active in the coming months. The announcements that major economies will continue to tighten lockdown measures, albeit in a localised manner for now, continues to weigh on risk appetite as downside risks to the global economic recovery start to materialise. Overall, real GDP in the Eurozone is expected to crash by 7.7% in 2020, far deeper than the 4.3% in the 2009 recession during the financial crisis. Assets purchases, on the other hand, are not a policy tool of the BCB liking either, as the Bank risks the public confidence over an extended debt portfolio.   DISCLAIMER: This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Limited, an execution-only service provider. Increase flexibility with regard to the collateral banks can use when they borrow from the Riksbank, which will, among other things, give banks more scope to use mortgage bonds as collateral. Lees Meer, Today’s euro rally faces a substantial hurdle, however, as EU members ratchet up pressure on the leaders of Poland and Hungary to pass the EU’s economic recovery package, with the legislation also including the bloc’s seven-year budget. The divergence in growth expectations has also led to a build-up in EUR longs by speculative investors. Lees Meer, All eyes are now turned to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 BST. Lees Meer, This is evident in the currency market, with AUDUSD trading up to the 0.7 level in June – an 11-month high. However, the length of the containment programme in China is key for assessing how entrenched the demand shock truly is. Lees Meer, The confusing subtleties of data releases during lockdown and the shift to alternative data, the Fed’s reluctance to begin yield curve controls, Canada’s upcoming fiscal deficit projections and labour market release, and finally inflation data in the EM space. Lees Meer, The pound continues to face two serious risks that are hampering a rally: ongoing political uncertainty, and murky growth prospects. Dezember 2011 verstorbenen Vorgängers Kim Jong-il und dessen dritter Ehefrau Ko Yong-hi. Forward guidance was what the market wanted coming into this monetary policy meeting and with the MPR shifting from two illustrative scenarios to a central scenario more akin to point forecasts. Lees Meer, The dollar spent another session declining yesterday as optimism was plentiful in markets. In light of the current malaise in the German economy, last week’s resignation by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and the race to replace her takes on even more significance, both for the German economy and the eurozone as a whole. The pound has been trading in a subdued manner over the last 24-hours, with volatility expected to remain low until the exit poll is released at 22:00 GMT tonight. Lees Meer, Sterling weakened sharply yesterday as the Bank of England revealed an increased willingness to investigate and discuss negative interest rates as a policy option, but since then has recouped its losses against the US dollar. Lees Meer, Sterling continues to sit on the back foot as a G10 currency against the dollar in a mild risk-off environment. Jule Gölsdorf und der ehemalige VW-Vorstandsvositzende Matthias Müller haben sich nach rund einem Jahr getrennt.   Lees Meer, The dollar’s decline had stabilised somewhat over the last few trading sessions as states tighten lockdown measures and fiscal stimulus discussion continue to remain in limbo. Lees Meer, Once regarded as one of the best indicators of the US economy by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, the index fell to a decade low of 47.8. Additionally, the CARES act will now see more claims fall under the official data stemming from unemployment benefits being paid to self-employed and gig economy workers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBT6M6Jpl3Q Lees Meer, Sterling gears up for another week of Brexit after broadly selling-off last week. Several themes will be interesting, even if no policy change is forthcoming: Among the G10 currencies NOK and CHF are the best performers. Lees Meer, The Mexican peso opened the European session at its worst levels of the year against the dollar, following the announcement by Donald Trump on a round of progressive tariffs from 5% to 25%, to take effect between June 10th and October 1st, until the Mexican authorities "stop" illegal immigration at the border. The probability of a rate cut implied by Overnight Index Swaps has barely moved since the last Bank of Canada meeting, with swap markets still pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in April’s meeting. Lees Meer, The dynamic loosely remains one of improving risk appetite: on the day, EUR and JPY are among the worst performers, GBP and SEK the best. The US Treasury may impose controls on transactions and freeze assets for implementing the new national security law.     Today’s main data release will be the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report, at 13:30 GMT. Assurez-vous simplement d’être objectif. Kim Jong-un kim.dzɔŋ.ɯn (* 8. First, the contraction in Chinese demand on the back of a slowing economy could trim eurozone exports in Q1 – China is the bloc’s third largest trading partner after the US and UK. Both have pros and cons, but is one better for you? Lees Meer, This morning it became clear President Trump has signed a waiver to postpone the sanctions against Chinese technology company Huawei for three months. Lees Meer, The Government’s internal markets bill passed its second reading in Parliament by 77 votes last night, despite 20 abstentions from Conservative MPs. Lees Meer, Today’s measures show not just synchronisation between the Treasury and Bank of England, but massive coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus. We expect the rationale behind this is two-fold. Le risque est alors qu’il rompe toute communication et ne vous donne plus du tout de nouvelles. Lees Meer, Next week, the focus remains on central banks with the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and National Bank of Poland due to release fresh policy decisions. While recent institutional frictions within the EU and re-emerging US-China trade tensions have put a lid to the euro price action, gradual reopening plans have kept the single currency supported above 1.08 level. Lees Meer, After a marathon negotiation session, EU leaders have finally unanimously approved a fund consisting of €390bn of grants and €360bn of low-interest loans. Areas of contention such as state aid and fishing rights are yet to be bridged, meaning a narrow trade deal ahead of tomorrow’s EU summit is unlikely. BOJ TO MAINTAIN POLICY STANCE WHILE THE CURRENCY CAPTURES ATTENTION Both Trump and President Xi are expected to hold an “extended meeting” after dialogue broke down and further tariffs were levied back on May 10th.
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